So we have another set of primaries in the bit bucket and Sanders, as expected, has surged forward. As many in the media are saying, Clinton limped out of Kentucky and no one seems to understand why Sanders is still losing when is winning so Huge? Of course the reality of the race is much different. According to the data, Kentucky and Oregon were both Sanders to lose. Kentucky is a larger state than Sanders has done well in, but it has a low African American Black and Hispanic population. Clinton was not going to to do better than she did, and did not need to. Unfortunately for Sanders this was not a repeat of West Virginia where people went to the polls to vote against Clinton. In that state Sanders did not so much win as people just hated Clinton.
The real problem for Sanders, though, is Oregon, where he only won by 10 points and walked away with a trivial number of net delegates. What Sanders was a repeat his performance in Colorado and Washington State, places with more than 3 million people, with a small percentage of AA and moderate Hispanic community. In those states Sanders won more than 60% of the delegates. He almost had 60% of the delegates in Oregon, but failure to meet that goal indicates a either a systemic problem in capturing large states(the vast majority of his big wins are in states with less than 2 million people) or that his brand is fading and he can no longer attract voters. In any case, Sanders getting 70% of the delegates in any race is no longer supported by data.
In the most optimistic model for Sanders, he is not going break 2000 delegates, while Clinton will have well over 200 pledged delegates after June 7. Sanders will likely have 20% fewer popular votes than Clinton. Clinton will likely have almost 60% of the states.
Yet a contested convention is still possible if Sanders can make a simple change to the rules. On the other hand every day he stays in the race is a day that Trump gets headlines that Trump is the only presumed nominee, that Trump is winning in all the polls for POTUS, and the GOP is united around Trump. Ever day that Sanders stays in the media has an excuse to cover Trump as the only nominee for POTUS with a majority of delegates, and ignore Clinton as just another party candidate. Sanders can negotiate for everything he wants right now, and Clinton can rise in the polls and we no longer will have to hear that Trump is winning.