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Sanders Wins The White State

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Sanders continues his sweep of mostly White States(and Hawaii) while Clinton continues her sweep of The Base.  This is about the only reasonable conclusion that can be seen drawn from Tuesday nights results.  For a minute it seemed he might win a state with over 10% AA, but then Clinton pulled ahead in Connecticut and Sanders continued his losing streak of states with large AA population. In fact the average AA population of states he has won is less than 5%.

Sanders one win, Rhode Island, was only by 20 points.  He was not able to match the 30 point lead that might allow him to remain competitive with big wins in white states.  This is why it makes sense to adjust his wins in all white states to 20 points and marginal states to a tie. It also makes sense to give Clinton the win in states with high AA or Hispanic population, since Sanders has not been able to win a state with a Hispanic population of over 25%.  It is not backed by any evidence that Sanders can win or tie California even if he makes this his only goal.  Under these assumptions Sanders will be about 400 delegates behind Clinton at the end of the primaries, and she has a fair chance of having enough delegates to win outright.  If we assume that Sanders will pull out after losing California, she probably will be able to clinch the nomination by New Jersey.


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